A Cautionary Tale…
Northampton Mayor Clare Higgins, take heed–because you could be next!
Was that an omimous enough opening for you? I must admit to having a flair for the dramatic at times, but Ii’m halfway serious this time, because Higgins could learn a lot from what happened this week to her compadre to the north, Greenfield Mayor Christine Forgey.
As you may know by now, Forgey’s bid for a third term was derailed this week with a third place finish in a mayoral primary won by Greenfield Town Councilors Alfie Siano and Bill Martin. Adding insult to injury was Martin’s second-place finish, which came from a write-in effort launched less than two weeks ago–not to mention that Martin was partially responsible for putting Forgey in office, having been a driving force in her first insurgent mayoral campaign back in 2003.
I will break down some of the subtleties of that race in my Recorder column. My purpose here today is to send a warning shot across the bow of Northampton’s current chief executive, who’s facing a re-election challenge of her own from a former ally, City Councilor Mike Bardsley.
At this point, Higgins is taking Bardsley very seriously, which is good–because that was one of Forgey’s major errors. Granted, she never expected to get blindsided by Martin, but she should have been prepared for it. She should have been prepared for anything, and she wasn’t. Forgey, like a lot of people, took a look at the field and just assumed it would be her and Siano in the final. That was the fatal mistake. And even when Martin jumped in the race, Forgey still didn’t seem to take the threat seriously. If she did, she wouldn’t have waited until the Thursday before the campaign to launch her re-election bid. A more adroit politician would have been in the news cycle the very next day after Martin announced, but Forgey didn’t even go that far. Meanwhile, Martin became the flavor of the week, and rode that momentum all the way to a victory that, though surprising, wasn’t exactly a shock.
In fact, Forgey’s lack of performance and response to Martin, actually had me wondering if she even wanted the job anymore. She assured me that she did, but you’d never know it by her response, or, should I say, lack of response.
I should stop for a moment and say that my intent today was not to come here and bash Forgey. But I can’t help but question her re-election strategy, assuming there was one, and submit to anyone reading this that it is an abject lesson in one of the cardinal rules of politics–namely, that incumbent that make assumptions about any re-election bid usually wind up watching someone else take the oath on Inauguration Day.
This is the lesson that Higgins needs to heed. The fall of Forgey may have been the result of a variety of factors directly related to Greenfield’s toxic political climate. But Northampton’s political toxicity levels aren’t getting any lower either, and it won’t surprise me if the Higgins-haters go looking for a primary candidate to do a similar job on her this fall.
If that happens, Her Honor will do well to remember the lessons of the Forgey implosion, and take nothing for granted because it never is–especially in a climate where people are hurting, pissed, and looking for someone to blame it on…
Collins